The Second Curve: Bracing for Changes in Technology, Consumers, and Markets
The podcast sees futurist and author, Ian Morrison, discuss the concept of his book, ‘The Second Curve’. This concept delineates how businesses must straddle their existing ‘first curve’ while preparing for a ‘second curve’ defined by new technologies, market shifts, and emerging consumer behaviors. Morrison cites examples, like Microsoft and Apple, of successful navigation from the first to second curve and emphasizes the importance of not abandoning the profit potential of the existing business too soon. Concerning organisations, Morrison discusses a shift from mechanistic to more fluid ‘organic’ forms, referencing shifts to more connected, network-driven models and an importance of corporate culture. He also explains the strategy of ‘virtual integration’ employed by companies like Apple, contrasting it to traditional integration approaches. Morrison finishes by highlighting the enduring relevance of adaptable, entrepreneurial culture in the success of these transformations.
Find Ian here: http://ianmorrison.com
00:00 Introduction: The Dilemma of the Second Curve
00:57 The Journey of the Author: From Geographic Change to Futurism
04:40 The Genesis of the Second Curve Concept
05:41 The Challenges of Navigating the Second Curve
06:47 The Impact of Technological Change on Businesses
09:02 The Role of Forecasting in Navigating Change
11:29 The Pitney Bowes Case Study: Navigating the Second Curve
13:13 The Importance of Timing in Jumping to the Second Curve
13:48 The Role of Innovation in Business Survival
15:18 The Impact of External Changes on Business Strategies
17:06 The Challenges of Adapting to New Business Models
18:37 The Role of Emotional Intelligence and Flexibility in Navigating Change
21:39 The Pitney Bowes Story: A Lesson in Navigating the Second Curve
37:16 The Role of Culture in Navigating the Second Curve
50:15 Conclusion: The Future of the Second Curve
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