Today’s book is a stand-alone sequel to “Predictions: Society’s Telltale Signature Reveals the Past and Forecasts the Future”, which provided a new way of understanding society and ourselves by applying scientific concepts to predicting social phenomena. In addition to taking up the challenge of confronting the predictions made 20 years ago with actual data-something, forecasters generally refrain from doing so; the book includes many new topics that became relevant more recently.Â
In 2020, the World Economic Forum estimated that AI might destroy 85 million jobs by 2025. A 2022 study by the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) found that between 9 and 47% of jobs could be automated, particularly jobs requiring lower education levels or more routine tasks. Not surprisingly, workers, particularly low-skilled ones, perceive automationâspecifically robotsâas threatening their jobs. Fear and resentment toward job-stealing machines are not new. Throughout the series of overlapping industrial revolutions in history, many jobs were indeed diminished or replaced by machines. Yet, other jobs were created over time. Prof Yossi Sheffi shares his thoughts on the future of work and workers. We welcome back Professor Yossi Sheffi for the finale of our series on his book, “The Magic Conveyor Belt: Supply Chains, A.I., and The Future of Work.”
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00:00:00.000 The Impact of Automation on Jobs
00:02:39.488 The Fifth Industrial Revolution and Amplifying Human Creativity
00:03:46.708 Job Creation and Unemployment Rates
00:06:23.573 The Slow Pace of Job Displacement and Regulation
00:09:00.668 Technology Always Wins, Companies Must Invest in Workers’ Skills
00:11:47.371 Negotiating for Skill Upgrades in the Advanced AI World
00:14:13.311 Regulation as a Short-Term Game, Reinvesting in Skills
00:16:12.024 The Impact of Automation on Logistics Jobs
00:17:26.473 The Rise of Autonomous Tracking and Workforce Preparation
00:19:36.312 The Impact of Model T on Job Creation
00:21:40.769 The Three Stages of Job Transformation: De-skilling, Scaling, Elimination
00:24:40.238 Job Changes and Creation in Automation
00:27:13.249 AI and Automation: Journalists’ Fears and Future Job Opportunities
00:35:49.159 The Importance of Purpose After Retirement
00:36:50.790 The Importance of Investing in the Future
00:40:07.188 Staying Relevant in an Evolving Job Market
00:44:16.591 The Social Dimension of Automated Jobs
00:47:35.298 Embracing Change and Adapting to Working with Machines
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That HBR article Yossi mentions:Â
Part 2 covers the âFurther Complexity and Challengesâ of supply chains, and you explore how the last 50 years have added even more complexity. This part covers the rising demand for goods and the increasing consumer expectations for fast, perfect delivery services.
00:00:00.751 Introduction: Further Complexity and Challenges in Supply Chains
00:01:41.748 The Evolution of Industrial Revolutions
00:14:39.859 Short-term Focus of Wall Street and Cost Cutting
00:16:51.371 Ethical Companies with Veto Power in Supply Chain
00:19:05.497 Complexity of Supply Chain Leads to Lack of Transparency
00:22:18.074 The Hidden Structure of Supply Chains Revealed
00:22:58.371 Supplier Secrecy and Business Management
00:24:55.140 The Horsemeat Scandal: Lack of Awareness
00:26:35.611 IKEA’s Past Controversies and Sustainability Efforts
00:29:55.209 The Function of Free Trade Zones
00:35:23.620 The Dilemma of Climate Change and Consumer Behavior
00:39:22.406 VUCA: Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity in Supply Chains
00:41:55.300 Moving Final Production Step to Vietnam for Political Reasons
00:42:27.457 Environmental concerns and reliance on Chinese materials
00:45:22.956 Costly Investments in Emergency Operations and Drills
00:48:11.291 The Success Story of Private Equity and Innovation
00:50:47.965 The Bullwhip Effect: Supplier Reactions and Market Fluctuations
Mentioned by Yossi:
In a visit to MIT, FedEx founder Frederick Smith shares thoughts on innovation:
https://news.mit.edu/2023/fedex-founder-frederick-smith-mit-visit-0215
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Todayâs book explains why supply chains are complicated to operate (and getting more challenging!). Fortunately, future managers can employ a combination of suitably educated employees and digital technology to manage ever-higher complexity successfully.
People and companies can use digital technologies to make themselves more efficient and more effective in addressing the expanding and changing needs of the planet.
Our guest is the author of a 1985 textbook on transportation networks and eight management books dealing with supply chain resilience, sustainability, and industrial clustering; we welcome the author of The Magic Conveyor Belt: Supply Chains, A.I., and The Future of Work, we welcome Professor Yossi Sheffi.
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00:00:00.067 The Challenges of Operating Supply Chains
00:03:23.626 The Complexity of Supply Chains and Appreciation for Efforts
00:05:21.979 The Complexity of Global Supply Chains
00:06:57.421 Complexity of Supply Chains in Automobile Industry
00:13:35.997 The Surprising Complexity of the Banana Supply Chain
00:18:23.385 The Supply Chain: Synchronizing Supply and Demand
00:24:35.818 Unforeseen Impacts: How Disruptions Ripple Through the Chain
00:30:00.944 Supply Chain Managers: Victims of their own Success
00:32:40.419 Insights on Outsourcing and Offshoring in China
00:33:34.670 China’s Rise as a Manufacturing Powerhouse
00:38:56.587 Mysterious Fibers Replacing Materials in Airplanes
00:39:11.269 China’s Dominance in Bonding Agents and Rare Earth Materials
00:40:52.177 The Unpleasant Choices in Balancing Priorities
00:43:40.989 Outsourcing, Offshoring, and the Complexity of Supply Chains
00:51:38.755 The Complex and Efficient Manufacturing of Cheap T-Shirts
00:53:42.528 Conspicuous Consumption and Food Waste in the United States
Gautam Mukunda is an internationally recognized expert in leadership and innovation. He often jokes that his lifeâs ambition is to have the worldâs most confusing resume and that heâs most of the way there. Gautam is a Research Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy Schoolâs Center for Public Leadership, Senior Advisor to Americaâs Frontier Fund, the author of Indispensable: When Leaders Really Matter (Harvard Business Review Press, 2012) and Picking Presidents: How To Make The Most Consequential Decision in the World (University of California Press, 2022), and the host of Nasdaqâs podcast World Reimagined with Gautam Mukunda.
Gautam has been a professor at Harvard Business School and Distinguished Visiting Professor at Schwarzman College, Tsinghua University. He was Head of Research at Rose Park Advisors, a specialized investment firm founded by his mentor Clayton Christensen, that invests using the theories of disruptive innovation. He has published articles in Harvard Business Review, Foreign Policy, Security Studies, Slate, Fast Company, Parameters, Politics and the Life Sciences, and Systems and Synthetic Biology on topics including leadership, reforming the financial sector, military innovation, network-centric warfare, the security and economic implications of synthetic biology, and the TV show Mad Men. His work has been profiled in the New York Times, Atlantic, New Yorker, Economist, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, and on All Things Considered. He is the Exclusive Leadership Consultant to U.S. Soccer.
Find https://www.gautammukunda.com/
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To truly profit from disruption, an enterprise must be prepared to manage increasingly short windows of profitability, scaling up rapidly as customers embrace the new all at once, then scaling down nearly as fast when demand declines. Paul Nunes is the global managing director for thought leadership at Accenture Research. He leads the company in developing ground-breaking insights into technology and strategic business change. He is co-author of three books, Big Bang Disruption: Strategy in the Age of Devastating Innovation, Jumping the S-Curve: How to Beat the Growth Cycle, Get on Top, and Stay There, and Mass Affluence: 7 New Rules of Marketing to Todayâs Consumers. It has been an absolute pleasure learning from him.
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00:00:00.256 Introduction and Overview of the Series Finale
00:11:25.254 Creating a Company that Values Innovators
00:16:20.936 Balancing Wall Street Expectations and Innovation Goals
00:18:31.172 Jeff Bezos’ Approach to Investor Relations
00:21:14.030 Managing Wall Street vs Managing to Wall Street
00:22:46.440 Effective Communication and Leadership in Challenging Times
00:32:40.338 Predicting Heart Attacks and Improving Sleep Patterns
00:36:12.004 The Profound Importance of Cell Phones
00:40:47.441 Companies Breaking New Ground through Strategies and Resource Allocation
00:45:35.337 Jio’s success in leveraging 4G technology
00:48:06.392 Final thoughts
Pivot to the Future is for leaders who seek to turn the existential threats of today and tomorrow into sustainable growth, with the courage to understand that a wise pivot strategy is not a one-time event but a commitment to a future of perpetual reinvention, where one pivot is followed by the next and the next.
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Based on Accenture’s own experience of reinventing itself in the face of disruption, the company’s real-world client work, and a rigorous two-year study of thousands of businesses across 30 industries, Pivot to the Future reveals methodical and bold moves for finding and releasing new sources of trapped value-unlocked by bridging the gap between what is technologically possible and how technologies are being used. The freed value enables companies to reinvent their legacy and current and new businesses simultaneously.
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00:00:00.256 Harnessing Disruption: A Strategy for Future Relevance
00:03:08.439 Extending the Horizons: Balancing Old, Now, and New Businesses
00:11:22.493 The importance of a visionary CEO and leadership team
00:15:16.543 Majority of profits go to reinforcing existing businesses
00:19:15.760 Old trees provide shade and protection for the next generation
00:21:06.756 Conventional Wisdom vs. New Wisdom: Exiting vs. Exploiting Old Businesses
00:28:00.496 The Fallacy of Cash Cows in Rapidly Changing Markets
00:31:49.016 The Challenges of Electric Cars and Hybrid Technology
00:43:01.017 The Trapped Value Gap: Turning Disruption into Opportunity
00:47:41.371 Societal Value: How Society Benefits from Digital Transformation
00:49:00.914 The Evolution of Customer Segments and Channels
In keeping with the metaphor of astronomyâs Big Bang theory, Paul named the four stages of the shark fin after critical events in the creation and predicted the end of our known universe. Letâs get into the four stages: The Singularity, The Big Bang, The Big Crunch and Entropy. Paul unpacks the rules that prop up these four stages.
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00:00:00.769 Introduction and Overview of “Four Phases of Big Bang Disruption”
00:03:14.786 Importance of Truth Tellers and Pinpoint Market Entry
00:11:11.771 From Idea to Product: Rapid Sales Success
00:15:34.394 The Importance of Being First in a Competitive Market
00:17:00.996 The concept of bullet time in movies explained
00:19:11.133 The need to anticipate how incumbents will slow time
00:20:34.611 The Strategic Thinking in Chess and Business
00:30:44.407 Recognizing Industry Shifts: The iPod and Toshiba Hard Drive
00:35:05.831 Phillips’ Transition to LED Bulbs and Exiting the Lighting Business
00:38:39.902 Profiting from the Wreckage: Escape Your Own Black Hole
00:41:02.475 The challenges of transitioning and maintaining customer commitments
00:44:31.607 Moving on from the past and finding new opportunities
We continue our series with Paul Nunes. This is part 2 of Big Bang Disruption, where we dive into the Shark Fin and look at Nintendo, Regulation, Pinball and more.
We have entered a fourth stage of innovationâ the era of Big Bang Disruption. The new disrupters attack existing markets not just from the top, bottom, and sides but from all three at once. This isnât disruptive innovation. Itâs devastating innovation.