“Spreadsheets are a fantasy made explicit. They’re not a metric. What you can measure is the evidence that the business case could work.”

Alexander Osterwalder, creator of the Business Model Canvas, CEO of Strategyzer and author of The Invincible Company, Testing Business Ideas and Value Proposition Design, returns to The Innovation Show. He walks Aidan McCullen through the evidence-based innovation playbook he uses with companies like Honeywell to decide which growth projects to fund, which to change, and which to retire — so you get a real funnel, not a tunnel.

In this conversation, Alex reveals:
• Why every upfront business case is “pure fantasy” — and what to measure instead
• The five levels of evidence, from what customers say to what they actually do
• How Honeywell’s Growth Symposiums fund projects on scorecards of evidence, not opinions
• Why LEGO Movies started at zero on every score while LEGO Friends started at level-five feasibility
• The explore vs exploit trap: why 90% of companies judge new ideas with “exploit glasses” on
• Amazon’s scale from new warehouses to Kindle to AWS — and why AWS was never a business case
• Why engineers build too fast in the age of AI, and why needs and willingness to pay come first
• The “Mark said we know” technique that makes faith-based investing explicit
• What makes an entrepreneurial leader, from Jeff Bezos to Logitech’s Bracken Darrell
• The move from books to playbooks: the say-do cycle and the market-readiness assessment, demonstrated live

Chapters:
00:00 Scorecard Of Evidence
02:00 Oscar The Cat
03:00 Welcoming Alex Osterwalder
04:00 From Books To Playbooks
06:00 Honeywell Growth Symposiums
08:00 Business Cases Are Fantasy
10:00 Test Needs And Willingness To Pay
13:00 Five Levels Of Evidence
16:00 Evidence Scorecards Per Idea
17:00 LEGO Movies Versus LEGO Friends
20:00 Explore Versus Exploit Mindset
24:00 The Dual Mindset Leader
27:00 Innovation Theatre Confession
30:00 Playbook Demo Market Readiness
32:38 Scoring Customer Evidence
34:09 Leader Evidence Conversations
36:19 Practical Wrap Up
39:00 Where To Find Alex

Find Alex and the Strategyzer playbook library at https://www.strategyzer.com

This series is brought to you by Kyndryl, who run and reimagine the technology systems that drive advantage for the world’s leading businesses. With a unique blend of AI-powered consulting built on unmatched managed-service capability, Kyndryl helps leaders harness technology for smarter decisions, faster innovation, and lasting competitive edge. Learn more about Kyndryl and the Kyndryl Institute at https://www.kyndryl.com.

Win a copy of one of Alex Osterwalder’s books: sign up for the Kyndryl Institute at https://www.kyndryl.com/institute and send us a screenshot to be in with a chance, with thanks to Kyndryl.

About The Innovation Show: the Thinkers50-recognised podcast where square pegs find their place in a world of round holes. Hosted by Aidan McCullen, author of Undisruptable, it brings you conversations with world-class authors, scientists and practitioners on disruption, innovation, change, transformation and leadership.

Website: https://theinnovationshow.io
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YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/theinnovationshow
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aidanmccullen

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